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A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak.
The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks denoting the risk for severe weather and wildfires for specific regions in the United States. For severe weather, which includes the risk for thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and straight-line winds, there are five risk levels indicating the probability for these hazards: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high.
Day 4–8 outlooks are the longest-term official SPC Forecast Product, and often change significantly from day to day. This extended forecast for severe weather was an experimental product until March 22, 2007, when the Storm Prediction Center incorporated it as an official product.
Progression of a well-anticipated extremely critical event across the Central Plains on March 6, 2017. This event produced wildfires that burned 1,200,000 acres of land, and killed seven people. An extremely critical fire weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for wildfire events in the United ...
Monday is the first time in over a year the Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk warning for severe weather. The last time was March 31, 2023, when over 100 tornadoes were reported ...
High risk convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction center at 13:00 UTC on May 6 May 6. Starting April 30, the Storm Prediction Center noted that certain models, including the ECMWF, forecasted a multi-day period of high instability and supportive wind shear across the Southern and Central Plains, and by May 1, a 15% risk was added across Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas.
Meteorological synopsis The tornado outlook issued by the SPC on the afternoon of December 9 (20:00 UTC) On December 5, the Storm Prediction Center issued a 5-day severe weather risk ahead of predictions that strong convective instability and wind shear would occur across portions of the Southern United States, from east Texas to western Mississippi.
As a large, widespread, and damaging storm complex event was occurring throughout the Great Plains, which unleashed powerful damaging winds and tornadoes across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the SPC highlighted a potential area for the risk of severe weather in the following days, with the main, 30% area for severe weather centered around ...