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The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks denoting the risk for severe weather and wildfires for specific regions in the United States. For severe weather, which includes the risk for thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and straight-line winds, there are five risk levels indicating the probability for these hazards: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high.
Day 4–8 outlooks are the longest-term official SPC Forecast Product, and often change significantly from day to day. This extended forecast for severe weather was an experimental product until March 22, 2007, when the Storm Prediction Center incorporated it as an official product.
The categorical forecast in the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks—which estimates a severe weather event occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of a point and derives the attendant risk areas from probability forecasts of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail on Days 1 and 2, and a combined severe weather risk on Day 3—specifies the level of ...
AccuWeather predicts 1,055 to 1,200 twisters will touch down across the United States throughout 2023, slightly below the historical average of 1,225. Even with a fast and furious start to March ...
Severe weather season is about to shift into high gear as a volatile weather pattern fuels repeated rounds of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes across more than a dozen states through May ...
The NWS said golf ball or larger size hail, winds gusts up to 70 miles per hour and significant tornadoes are once again all possible. Confidence in severe weather Wednesday is moderate to high ...
High risk convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction center at 13:00 UTC on May 6 May 6. Starting April 30, the Storm Prediction Center noted that certain models, including the ECMWF, forecasted a multi-day period of high instability and supportive wind shear across the Southern and Central Plains, and by May 1, a 15% risk was added across Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas.
A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak.
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