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Run out to 36 hours (this replaced the UK 4 km model in 2011). The forecast is run every 3 hours using boundary conditions from the 25-km global model. [13] The resolution is 1.5 km over the UK, and 4 km over surrounding areas. [14] [15] The UKV model is kept close to observations using 3D-Var data assimilation every 3 hours.
For half of their forecasts, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models – NHC90, BAM, and LBAR – are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, such as the GFS and GFDL, finish after the advisory has already been issued.
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.
These uncertainties limit forecast model accuracy to about six days into the future. [81] Edward Epstein recognized in 1969 that the atmosphere could not be completely described with a single forecast run due to inherent uncertainty, and proposed a stochastic dynamic model that produced means and variances for the state of the atmosphere. [82]
The Rapid Refresh is run at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It is based on the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); the Global Forecast System (GFS) provides the boundary parameters. The grid points are spaced every 13 kilometres (8.1 mi), with 50 vertical intervals extending up to the 10 ...
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is an implementation of ensemble forecasting for global weather forecasting and is part of THORPEX, an international research programme established in 2003 by the World Meteorological Organization to accelerate improvements in the utility and accuracy of weather forecasts up to two weeks ahead.
This mathematical model is run four times a day and produces weather forecasts. Along with the ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System (IFS), the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) it is one of several synoptic scale medium-range models in general use.
The forecasting of the precipitation within the next six hours is often referred to as nowcasting. [12] In this time range it is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as well as other features too small to be resolved by a computer model.